PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE
If the Opposition Wins…
By Paul Scham
April 2026
Time may be closing in on Bibi Netanyahu. It is very possible that at this time next year there will be a new Israeli prime minister and a completely new government. But what that government may do and how it will deal with the far-flung excesses of the current one seems impossible to decipher. Nevertheless, herewith is an attempt to peer into the next year and regard what may be around the corner for Israel and, by extension, much of the muddled Middle East.
Israeli Elections
No doubt foremost on Bibi’s mind is how to influence this year’s elections, which must be held by October 27. To the extent he hoped that the current Iran War would win him votes, it’s been a bust. There was a small bump early in the war, but then a return to the “normal” polling that has prevailed for 6 months or more. To summarize what they indicate: Likud would be the largest party with about 28 seats, but the current coalition would win only about 50-52 seats, not the 61+ it needs to return to power, and certainly not the 64 it won in November 2022. The Opposition’s Jewish (or Zionist) parties would likely win about 55-58, with the remainder going to a renewed Joint List of four predominantly-Arab parties. For a longer version, see my substack from January.
There comes the rub, since most of the Jewish parties – the Labor/Meretz union, “HaDemocratim” being a notable exception – have pledged “No Arabs in government”. If adhered to, this could start a new round of unsuccessful elections with no new government being formed, as happened three times in 2019-2021. The result would be: The status quo is maintained, and Bibi stays as PM, untouchable even if convicted in his corruption cases. Or, the Jewish parties could break their promises, allow Mansour Abbas’s United Arab List (Ra’am) to join the coalition with a projected 5-6 Knesset seats, and form a potentially stable government. Recall that Abbas’ party was part of the short-lived “Government of Change” (June 2021-December 2022) that briefly replaced Netanyahu.
Then What?
When the previous Government of Change (GoC) took power in June 2021, its eight diverse constituent parties agreed not to deal with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which hamstrung most efforts at fundamental change. But there were a number of areas in which it rolled up modest successes, such as making an attempt to deal with crime and improving infrastructure in Arab communities, repairing ties with the US government, reducing the budget deficit to zero, lowering prices, and increasing competition. But its Achilles heel was its inability to deal with the conflict; and there is no indication that a government composed of the same people and parties would do any better, even if larger by a few MKs.
The Immediate Neighborhood
The GoC didn’t think of itself as taking office in a peaceful and problem-free era, but, compared to today, that time seems so. Israel is still in its post-October 7 trauma; the new government will immediately authorize a Commission of Inquiry, whose principal job will be to rake over the ashes of October 7, assign blame, and make recommendations. This will proceed while Israel is likely to still be occupying large swathes of Lebanon and attempting the destruction of Hezbollah; occupying half of Gaza with few serious plans as to dealing with two million Gazans and an angry world; and also coping with the aftermath of an ill-conceived war in Iran, one which all the Jewish parties supported to various degrees, but about which none have serious policies prepared, much less a joint approach. And, almost as an afterthought, there is a new government in Syria that Israel seems determined to treat as a likely enemy and a stalking horse for Turkey, with little latitude being given to prove itself to be what most of the world thinks it is: a promising experiment of an ex-Jihadist making a genuine new start for his ruined country.
The Region
Arguably even worse is the regional disarray. In stark contrast to 2021, when it seemed that most in the Arab world were eager to forget the Palestinians and regard Israel as their savior from Iran, Israel is now universally seen as the co-conspirator, along with President Trump, in bringing down a favorable and profitable regional and worldwide order. Israel, unlike Trump, can be explicitly blamed by Arab leaders, and these leaders will endear themselves to their people for doing so. Israel is regarded, not unjustly, as slightly crazed, still bristling from October 7 and eager to see any minor security issue as a potential casus belli. Moreover, a Palestinian state is seen as a sine qua non in the Arab world, but a complete nonstarter for Israelis.
United States
A new government may well face a President Trump furious at the defeat of his favorite Israeli. Or not. No one can know. What is certain is that the new Prime Minister will not enjoy the unprecedented access offered to Bibi – nor the opportunity to plan wars together. Moreover, the new government will face an American public, and especially a Democratic Party, which may be unprecedentedly anti-Israel, and most will not be appeased by a change of prime ministers. Israel could well be blamed for any failures of the Iran War, even – or especially – by Trump, who has never been known to accept responsibility or blame for anything.
Domestically
The new government will face an exhausted country, the more so if the current war continues. War expenses and miluim (reservist) call-ups have gone through the roof, as have murders in Arab communities. The messianic far-right will not accept its loss of power with good grace – and may redouble its violence in the West Bank following an election loss. Moreover, laws have been changed to facilitate de facto annexation, which would be difficult to reverse – even if the new coalition were to decide to do so.
The Rest of the World
Israel will likely have to spend a generation or more bringing itself back to the good graces of much of the world, which can only be compared, perhaps unfairly, to Germany’s task after World War II, as distasteful as the comparison is. However, Germany did accomplish it.
In Conclusion
Few of the leaders of a new government have apparently thought about many of these issues, with which they’ll be immediately confronted. One can surmise that their answers will be very different, even opposite to those of their government colleagues from the very disparate parties comprising any new coalition.
Perhaps, deterred by the enormity of the challenges ahead, they’ll duck a new government and turn the country back to Bibi?
Personally, I very much hope not.
Paul Scham
Author’s note: Despite the pessimism of this article, I think the first task of any “change” agenda must have as a first priority bringing down the Bibi-apparatus that has pushed Israel into unimagined excesses in recent years. The change is essential, even if it doesn’t immediately conform to our own priorities. I refuse to give up on or walk away from Israel – and the first step must be removing Bibi and his cohort from the government.
Paul Scham is President of Partners for Progressive Israel and Director of the Gildenhorn Institute for Israel Studies at the University of Maryland, where he is a Professor of Israel Studies.
