On September 8, Haaretz published a blockbuster revelation that the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed bin Zayad (MbZ) personally warned Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in an extended phone call about ten days before October 7, 2023, that Hamas was planning a major offensive, and that Netanyahu failed to notify the army and security heads of the alert.
MbZ’s warning came in the context of extended discussions with Hamas, authorized by Netanyahu and conducted through intermediaries. In June 2023, Egypt initiated a plan under which a hudna (a long-term truce) would be established between Hamas and Israel with the goal of creating stability in Gaza-Israel relations, strained by an effective blockade and tit-for-tat missile and bomb exchanges. Representatives of Israel’s military and Shin Bet (security service) were dispatched to Cairo by Prime Minister Netanyahu to explore those ideas. The proposal would give Hamas sovereign-like authority, and could be seen as an extension of Netanyahu’s policy of permitting large cash payments from Qatar, ostensibly to support civilian relief but which practically led to diversions supporting Hamas’ political and military infrastructure. How sincere Hamas was in its discussions of the proposal is not clear. Concurrently with the discussions, Hamas was planning its October 7 attack and promoting jihad in its Arabic pronouncements.
The plan was discussed with the Israeli cabinet in July which did not agree to it but supported continuing discussions to promote civilian relief in Gaza in the interests of stabilization and in the context of a staged framework suggested by Israel’s military. By mid-summer, the discussions had devolved into negotiations to arrange an exchange of two Israeli civilians and the bodies of two Israeli soldiers for Hamas prisoners held by Israel and for Israel to improve electricity and water supply for Gaza. Hamas made a string of concessions in its demands, but the talks did not move towards a clear conclusion. Frustrated with the lack of progress, Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, began to issue warnings through intermediaries. In mid-September, Sinwar asked a Palestinian Authority minister, who had been an active conduit for a year and a half, to pass a threat that Hamas was planning a “zilzal” (earthquake) if Israel-Hamas negotiations did not progress. This message was conveyed indirectly through the UAE to the Shin Bet. When there was no apparent political response, MbZ escalated the messaging with his phone call directly to Netanyahu. Reportedly, Netanyahu dismissed the warning during the call, saying the key security threat came not from Gaza but from the West Bank. He did not notify the IDF or security bodies of his conversation with MbZ and would divert crucial military resources from the Gaza border to the West Bank shortly before the October 7 attack.
When the Haaretz article was published, Netanyahu’s office immediately denied that MbZ had warned the Prime Minister and called the accusation “a sinister plot.” Netanyahu threatened to sue Haaretz and his lawyers took the first legal step by writing a formal letter to the newspaper with a complaint. Crucially, however, no legal filing was entered in court.
As US Senator Chris Van Hollen says, “the first thing everybody should know is that Prime Minister Netanyahu is a chronic liar.”
Haaretz stated it had multiple sources and recordings to support its report. Independent confirmation for the Haaretz disclosure came from former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett who, from his time in office, had his own connection to MbZ, and declared the Haaretz report to be true.
The likely reason for Netanyahu’s closing his eyes to numerous warnings including that made personally by President Zayad is his obsession with West Bank annexation and the internal dynamics of his extremist governing coalition.
While the Haaretz disclosure was a shocking bit of news, it seemed to have had little impact on polls which have shown a remarkable stability of opinion as Israel moves to parliamentary elections on October 27. Dahlia Scheindlin, a public opinion expert and Haaretz commentator, noted the public is highly polarized, preventing information adverse to a person’s view from penetrating. If, however, as polls suggest, the current government will not be able to configure a ruling majority after elections, a commission of inquiry into the security failures leading to the October 7 2023 debacle might finally be organized. If it is created, the Haaretz disclosure will be an important but hardly singular piece in the extraordinary security failures leading to the October 7 disaster.
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